It has not been a really productive yr for the House, even when it wasn’t outright humiliating for its dwindling Republican majority. The physique handed historically little in the best way of laws in 2023, defenestrated one speaker and elected one other after virtually a month of chaos, and expelled its first member in additional than twenty years.
What Congress didn’t do, although, was strike a long-term funding resolution to maintain the federal government open, or go a supplementary appropriations invoice to maintain cash flowing to Ukraine and Israel. And with cash and time operating out, lawmakers should shake off vacation inertia and transfer rapidly within the new yr to get these priorities completed.
Here are 4 huge questions on Congress’s January slate.
What precisely does Congress must get carried out — and by when?
The first main precedence Congress might be confronted with is preserving the federal government open. In September and once more in November this yr, Congress handed a pair of constant resolutions, or CRs, to stop imminent authorities shutdowns, however time is as soon as once more urgent.
The November shutdown, as Vox’s Li Zhou has beforehand reported, used an uncommon two-part construction, funding a part of the federal government by means of January 19 and the remainder by means of February 2. That means lawmakers have simply 9 legislative days earlier than 5 areas of presidency — transportation, housing, power, agriculture, and veterans’ affairs — run out of cash.
According to CNN, House Republican management has little curiosity in one other short-term funding punt, however a full-year CR will face bipartisan opposition within the Senate, establishing an deadlock — and there’s additionally no signal of settlement on funding ranges in a brand new appropriations invoice.
Resolving that deadlock might be regarded as Congress’s solely agency deadline — if it doesn’t occur by midnight on January 19, a partial authorities shutdown begins, and extra companies will shut down two weeks later, in February.
It’s not the one factor that should get carried out rapidly, although: While funding measures for Ukraine and Israel don’t have a selected date connected, there’s nonetheless strategic stress to get them carried out quickly. Both nations are actively at battle, and the Biden administration has indicated it is going to run out of cash for Ukraine this month.
While there’s a nice deal of bipartisan assist behind help for Israel regardless of a mounting civilian loss of life toll and catastrophic human struggling in Gaza, assist for Ukraine has continued to fray, significantly amongst Republicans, because the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion approaches in February for ever and ever and little seen army progress.
How did Congress get into this jam within the first place?
The greatest cause that Congress finds itself as soon as once more in a time crunch is its House Republican majority. After negotiating the primary of two CRs in September 2023, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ejected from the speakership by an inside revolt. The get together then chewed by means of a number of substitute speaker candidates, and many clock, earlier than touchdown on the present speaker, Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana.
As Vox’s Ellen Ioanes explained on the time, “For the rest of the country, a fight over the speakership takes away from the work of passing a long-term funding deal, as well as negotiating the future of aid to Ukraine.” That combat ended up taking 22 days, giving Johnson little time in his new chair to do greater than kick the can down the street with November’s CR — and the time that purchased him is operating out.
Now, Johnson is left with the identical majority that turned on McCarthy for placing a deal, minus the seat vacated by the expulsion of former Rep. George Santos (R-NY) and with extra vacancies on the horizon — together with that of McCarthy, whose resignation will take impact December 31. And lots of his most hardline members need far deeper spending cuts than would probably be acceptable to the Democratic majority within the Senate, or to the White House, additional complicating negotiations. Some of these members, within the far-right House Freedom Caucus, already condemned Johnson’s earlier CR, which in the end handed with way more Democratic assist. Johnson could have to do the identical this time round, however such a maneuver might put him vulnerable to a McCarthy-style ouster.
Why does Congress’s incapability to go a daily funding invoice matter?
Continuing resolutions are sometimes the lesser of two evils versus a partial authorities shutdown, and they could be a genuinely helpful measure to win just a few extra days or perhaps weeks for the legislative course of to work itself out. But they’re nonetheless not a great way to control: As the title suggests, the payments solely preserve earlier funding ranges, and over the long run, that poses a problem for the functioning of the federal authorities.
Specifically, inflation implies that a CR could also be inadequate even to totally fund the applications of the earlier yr — and it actually lacks cash for brand new applications, or current applications the place the funding calls for have elevated. All of these impacts can be compounded by a full-year CR, which Johnson might suggest within the new yr (although its passage can be unsure, to the say the least).
In 2022, the Pentagon warned in no unsure phrases in regards to the potential impacts of a year-long CR, which Navy chief of operations Adm. Michael Gilday described on the time as “completely new territory that we have not dealt with before that will have significant impacts across our military.” Such a measure might have related impacts throughout authorities.
This month, the Pentagon issued the same warning. At a December occasion with the Atlantic Council, according to a Defense Department information story, Adm. Christopher Grady famous that “continuing [resolutions] are not where we want to be. We need stable and predictable funding.”
How does immigration think about?
Adding to the tangled bundle of congressional priorities in January is immigration. Though ceaselessly thought-about considered one of Capitol Hill’s most intractable points, congressional Republicans have seized on the Biden administration’s request for extra Ukraine funding as a leverage level, and hope to safe limitations on asylum and faster deportations, amongst different coverage modifications.
The actual parameters of such a invoice are nonetheless unclear, nevertheless it’s wanting extra probably than it as soon as may need. As Vox’s Andrew Prokop reported this month, the Biden administration is worried that the border represents a political vulnerability, and because of this, a take care of Senate Republicans might emerge within the new yr.
Such a deal would hyperlink Ukraine funding and laws targeted on immigration and the border. President Joe Biden has additionally argued for linking Ukraine and Israel help, which suggests all three priorities might advance collectively — or in no way.
A bipartisan immigration invoice can be difficult for Democrats, each politically and morally. As Prokop writes:
Cutting an immigration restriction deal can be a serious shift for the “in this house, we believe no human is illegal” get together. It would sink the hopes of lots of the thousands and thousands of individuals coming to the US to hunt a greater life for themselves and their households, usually braving a treacherous journey. And it might trigger immense controversy amongst progressives and activists on the left.
But the urgency of Ukraine help, within the eyes of the White House, might easy its path nonetheless. Though Biden lambasted congressional Republicans for “playing chicken with our national security, holding Ukraine’s funding hostage to their extreme partisan border policies” in a speech earlier this month, he additionally famous that “any disruption in our ability to supply Ukraine clearly strengthens Putin’s position. We’ve run out of money to be able to do that, in terms of authorization.”
A earlier package deal linking all three priorities didn’t advance within the Senate in early December, and any deal would face further hurdles within the House, however bipartisan curiosity in Ukraine, Israel, and the border means a deal might nonetheless materialize.
If it does, it is going to be part of authorities funding in what’s shaping as much as be a busy January on Capitol Hill.
