Despite quite a few acquisitions, the cellular robotic market is actually not consolidating, and extra firms pop up annually.
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Despite quite a few acquisitions, the cellular robotic market is actually not consolidating. More distributors emerge annually and extra industrial firms are launching AMRs. The mixed market share of the highest 10 and high 20 main distributors barely modified between 2018 and 2020 and certainly dropped in 2021. Over the previous six years of researching this trade, we constantly establish new gamers (each start-ups and current firms from adjoining markets that now supply AMRs).
Fragmentation
Given the dramatic progress charges and large variance in regional and vertical trade efficiency, additional fragmentation of the provider base appears to be like doubtless – particularly when contemplating the big variety of present distributors and the continuous emergence of latest ones. As proven within the determine beneath, the highest 10 distributors of cellular robots, captured simply 36% of whole trade revenues in 2021. Compare this to the extra mature industrial robotic market and there the highest 10 distributors take pleasure in a 73% mixed market share. The similar determine for collaborative robotic arms is even larger, at almost 85%.
Start-Ups Grow Up
Many of the AMR start-ups from yester-year are actually producing important revenues (>$20m) having efficiently expanded on pilots carried out in earlier years. US-based Locus Robotics turned the trade’s first “unicorn” being valued at over $1bn following its $150m fund-raising spherical shut to 2 years in the past. Chinese rival, Geek+ has lengthy been rumored to be planning its IPO (maybe when trade and macro situations enhance), additional highlighting how far these once-start-ups have come.
The barely extra established gamers have additionally seen their companies develop to the following stage. Having significantly expanded their buyer and distribution bases, they’re benefiting from prospects putting in bigger numbers of AMRs because the expertise turns into extra confirmed.
Vendor Performance Varies Hugely
Part of the rationale that the trade isn’t but consolidating is the truth that “mobile automation” captures a mess of robotic varieties, industries and functions. From automated tugger trains on automotive manufacturing strains, via to cellular manipulators choosing particular person objects in a success heart. As such, vendor efficiency varies massively, and infrequently has little to do with their technique, product or efficiency however extra to do with driving the waves of their trade sector.
Overall income progress charges for distributors ranged from ~150% to damaging 50% in 2021. How a vendor carried out was largely linked to the principle finish industries and areas they have been uncovered to in addition to the kind(s) of cellular robotic they provide.
What does the Future Hold?
Major trade consolidation seems unlikely within the subsequent 2-3 years. However, given the present financial atmosphere and curiosity in cellular automation, it’s doubtless a number of the smaller gamers will attempt to ‘cash in their chips’. At the identical time, we’re additionally prone to see much more distributors emerge over the approaching years. The web consequence will doubtless be neither consolidation nor additional fragmentation.
Some excessive profile and main AMR distributors have been acquired prior to now two years (notably Fetch Robotics and ASTI Mobile Robotics). However, each have been acquired by firms with out an current cellular robotic portfolio, so this didn’t assist consolidate or focus market revenues. There have been examples of cellular robotic firms buying each other. In September 2021, Locus Robotics acquired Waypoint Robotics. And late final 12 months Teradyne introduced the merger of its two cellular robotic acquisitions (MiR and AutoGuide). At first look, this will likely point out market consolidation, however on nearer inspection, it exhibits this M&A exercise was considerably insignificant as AutoGuide and Waypoint mixed accounted for lower than 1% of whole trade revenues on the level of acquisition.
Future acquisitions look doubtless, significantly from industrial firms wishing to capitalize on the excessive progress and margins seen within the cellular automation sector. However, our expectation is that this could come from firms not already lively inside the sector.
Other potential consumers might be retailers or logistics firms (a lá Amazon/Kiva) or bigger warehouse automation system integrators (the likes of Dematic or Honeywell Intelligrated). But in our opinion that appears unlikely and unwise presently. With so many various cellular robotic distributors and applied sciences on the market, buying a single AMR firm at this time brings little worth and places all their eggs in a single basket. Instead, it will be much better for a retailer or logistics firm to have the ability to purchase from a number of robotic firms, selecting the best-in-breed for the duty at hand. Similar for a system integrator, it will be much more compelling to have the ability to supply its prospects the expertise from a number of robotic distributors (assuming they will get distribution agreements) fairly than from a single one it had acquired.
Of course, having the ability to make the most of utilizing AMR applied sciences from a number of distributors does include its personal challenges – most notably blended fleet orchestration. But that’s one other subject fully!
Editor’s Note: This story was initially printed by Interact Analysis and was reprinted with permission.