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That is the query posed by Buntin et al. (2022). The authors used knowledge from the 2007-2018 Medicare Master Beneficiary Summary File after which ran a regression adjustment to manage for affected person demographics (i.e., age, intercourse), variety of continual circumstances (none, 1-3, ≥4), and whether or not the person had Part A or Parts A and B protection.
Using this method the authors discovered that:
Between 2008 to 2011 and 2012 to 2015, the adjusted annual Medicare Parts A and B per-beneficiary spending progress fee declined from 3.3% to −0.1%. From 2016 to 2018, the imply annual Medicare spending progress fee rose relative to the earlier interval however remained decrease than within the baseline interval at 1.7% per 12 months. This slowdown prolonged throughout all sectors inside Parts A and B, apart from physician-administered medication supplied underneath Part B. Changes in cost charges (together with sequestration measures) and beneficiary traits defined 44% of the distinction in total per-beneficiary spending progress between 2007 to 2011 and 2012 to 2015, and 63% between 2007 to 2011 and 2016 to 2018.
The authors discover that the majority cost charges tracked pretty near inflation (21.0% over this time interval), however doctor reimbursement solely elevated by 6.5%.
The authors word that their findings are in step with the Congressional Budget Office’s discovering that total extra value progress—or per capita spending progress above and past per capita GDP progress —in Medicare between 2005 and 2017 was −0.1%. In different phrases, Medicare spending was 0.1 proportion factors decrease than financial progress over this time interval.