This July, NATO will meet for a key summit in Lithuania, an opportunity to get leaders collectively and showcase the alliance’s power and renewed sense of objective towards the backdrop of Russia’s conflict towards Ukraine. And NATO desires to do that in a single very particular means: by welcoming two longtime holdouts, Sweden and Finland, into NATO.
Except proper now, Turkish President Recep Erdoğan is threatening to spoil all of it.
Erdoğan, particularly, is elevating new objections to the ascension of Finland and particularly Sweden over what Turkey perceives because the latter’s lax insurance policies towards Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and different teams that Turkey deems terrorist organizations. Most just lately, Erdoğan has used a far-right politician’s burning of the Quran outdoors the Turkish embassy in Stockholm to harden his opposition to Sweden’s NATO bid.
All NATO members should approve new ones, so Erdoğan’s opposition is successfully a veto. The Turkish president is just not alone in declining help— Hungary’s Viktor Orbán can also be holding out, for now — however Erdoğan is seen because the extra legit roadblock. Erdoğan is flexing his overseas coverage energy and affect, and in search of to enhance his home political place, especially forward of inauspicious elections this May.
“Erdoğan thinks Turkey has leverage. Erdoğan thinks Turkey has justifiable grievances about Sweden’s policies. Erdoğan thinks he has an opportunity to use that leverage to address those grievances in a way that would be good for Turkey’s national interests. And, in addition to all of that, the entire issue is good for Erdoğan politically,” mentioned Nicholas Danforth, editor at War on the Rocks and nonresident senior analysis fellow on the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy.
Given all that, it’s probably not stunning this spat over the Nordic nations’ NATO membership is dragging out. But that is additionally actually not how the script was imagined to go — not less than based on a lot of the remainder of NATO.
What Turkey says it’s objecting to and why
Sweden and Finland introduced final yr they might search to hitch NATO, a historic reversal for 2 nations which have remained militarily non-aligned. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine modified their calculus, particularly in Finland, which shares a border with Russia and has the reminiscence of its personal invasion by the nation. Both are robust European democracies, and each have trendy militaries that have been already carefully cooperating with NATO, so ascension was anticipated to be comparatively uncontroversial and fast, not like another latest bids, which elicited much more criticism concerning the dangers of NATO expansionism. Perhaps most significantly, the timing of their functions represented a strategic and symbolic win for an alliance invigorated and united towards Russian aggression.
But Turkey shortly sophisticated issues, with Erdoğan saying the nation wouldn’t again the Finnish and Swedish bids. Turkey objected to what it noticed as each nations’ — however particularly Sweden’s — help or position as a protected haven for the PKK, and different networks Turkey has deemed terrorist teams. Sweden has historically taken in lots of Kurdish refugees, however Turkey sees Sweden as offering a refuge for organizing and financing anti-Turkish actions. The PKK has staged terrorist assaults in Turkey (it’s designated as a terrorist group by the US and European Union), however Erdoğan has additionally arbitrarily cracked down on Kurdish teams and different opposition members of civil society. Erdoğan additionally objected to the nations’ arms embargoes on Turkey, which have been put in place after Turkey invaded Syria in 2019.
“Turkey has a number of grievances concerning the laxity of the Swedish response to fight the influence of terror-linked entities, like the PKK, its fundraising, its public manifestations, and so on,” mentioned Sinan Ülgen, senior fellow at Carnegie Europe. “For quite a long time, Swedish authorities remained insensitive to Turkey’s requests to do more on this. So when Sweden decided to apply for [NATO] membership, Turkey obtained leverage. And now it has, and is using, this leverage.”
In June, Sweden, Finland, and Turkey reached a memorandum of understanding to attempt to assuage a few of Erdoğan’s considerations. Sweden and Finland lifted their arms blockades and agreed to a sequence of steps to cooperate with Turkey on terrorism-related points.
But Erdoğan is pushing for extra concessions, particularly from Sweden. Some of the calls for are wholly unrealistic, resembling a request to extradite 130 purported “terrorists” to Turkey. As consultants identified, Turkey operates underneath a reasonably shaky definition of terrorism, and issues that Erdoğan may contemplate terrorism look much more like freedom of speech in Sweden. Additionally, even in issues like extradition, Sweden and Finland can’t simply arbitrarily arrest folks; it has to undergo the judicial system, and the accused have due course of.
Then, latest anti-Turkey protests in Stockholm and the burning of the Quran by one far-right protester have soured talks even additional. Turkey condemned the burning as “anti-Islam,” with the Turkish Foreign Ministry saying that permitting such acts “under the guise of freedom of expression is completely unacceptable.” Turkey then scrapped talks with Swedish officers.
Sweden additionally condemned the act and the protests (which have been really anti-NATO protests). “This act plays directly into the hands of Russia and weakens our country, and it happened during the most serious security situation since the Second World War,” mentioned. Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström. (The e-book burner was reportedly funded by a journalist with Kremlin ties.) But, on the similar time, Sweden mentioned, the entire thing wasn’t really towards Swedish regulation, even when they have been offended about it, too.
And that’s about the place the standoff is now. Sweden and Finland are nonetheless attempting to work one thing out, with Sweden introducing a regulation Thursday that will ban sure actions that might help terrorist organizations. Washington and Brussels are more and more aggravated, with some leaders being fairly vocal about Turkey’s disloyalty. Congress has mentioned Ankara won’t get American-made F-16s (extra on that later) except it approves the NATP bids. More persons are additionally saying that perhaps NATO ought to simply kick Turkey out (no extra on that as a result of, whereas it’s noteworthy politicians are even speaking about it, consultants mentioned it’s not reasonable and the mechanisms to take action are fairly fuzzy). Turkey, in the meantime, has principally mentioned talks are meaningless within the present local weather, although it floated the opportunity of backing Finland for NATO, simply not Sweden — one thing Finland instantly rejected, as the 2 Nordic nations are very shut, and so they purposely sought a joint bid.
And the standoff could keep this manner, not less than till May — which is when Erdoğan and his ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party are going through a troublesome election. The economic system could be very, very unhealthy, and has been for some time, with extremely excessive inflation. Erdoğan has been in energy for a very long time, and polls — even in an setting the place Erdoğan controls plenty of the media — present some opposition leaders edging him out.
But the no-Sweden-in-NATO stuff? That performs. Erdoğan has for a very long time complained that NATO companions don’t take critically Turkey’s safety considerations, particularly across the PKK. This is an argument that resonates at house — not simply along with his base, however with broad swaths of the inhabitants. “It’s just an issue that he would like to keep alive because that plays well, along with other elements of the foreign policy arena, which, I think, he is weaponizing,” mentioned Sinan Ciddi, a professor of National Security Studies at Marine Corps University. “It gets the crowds fired up and gives people an extra reason to vote for him.” And if the purpose is to maintain this an electoral subject, it doesn’t actually matter what Sweden or Finland or different NATO nations supply.
And Erdoğan’s efforts to foil the best-laid plans of Washington and different Western powers in NATO might also resonate domestically. As consultants mentioned, this matches with how Erdoğan sees himself — and Turkey — as a participant and an influence in a multipolar world. “He sees an opportunity to demonstrate that this is a Turkey that is willing and able to engage in brinkmanship to get what it wants,” mentioned Howard Eissenstat, a Turkey skilled at St. Lawrence University and nonresident fellow on the Middle East Institute. “This is a Turkey that can say ‘no.’ This is a Turkey that expects its interest to be taken seriously — and not to have its allies assume that it will simply get into line because they said.”
The remainder of NATO is more and more offended, which could make Erdoğan’s transfer riskier in the long term
Turkey sees NATO as an instrument of its overseas coverage, a method to get Turkey a seat on the desk, and wrangle what it desires out of the large powers additionally sitting there. Right now, NATO ascension is a means to try this.
“He understands the importance of NATO expansion to these countries [Sweden and Finland], for the United States, for Europe, so he wanted to get as much as he could from these countries,” mentioned Gönül Tol, senior fellow on the Middle East Institute and writer of Erdoğan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria.
But Erdoğan’s obstinance is inflicting actual frustration in Washington and all through European capitals. This is just not precisely new; even earlier than Erdoğan, Turkey was all the time one thing of a NATO misfit — extremely helpful to the alliance due to its distinctive place, but in addition an influence whose pursuits and views didn’t all the time align with the remainder of the alliance members.
This has been on full show all through the Ukraine conflict. Erdoğan is the uncommon chief in NATO who has an open line to Moscow — but in addition to Kyiv. Turkey has repeatedly tried and repeatedly supplied to dealer a talks, and Turkey did assist dealer the deal that bought grain out of the Black Sea. Erdoğan has saved up his ties with Vladimir Putin, and he’s shopping for plenty of Russia’s stuff, regardless of sanctions. At the identical time, he’s nonetheless speaking to Volodymyr Zelenskyy and is promoting Ukraine crucial weapons, most notably drones, which have been very influential on the battlefield. Turkey has additionally condemned the conflict and closed off a Black Sea route, which finally has made it very difficult for Russian warships to go by way of. These are all issues Washington and Brussels wish to see keep in place, and that had helped win Erdoğan some leeway from different NATO allies.
But Erdoğan’s continued brinkmanship could undermine that. As Tol mentioned, the Turkish chief could now be overplaying his hand. “By foot-dragging on Finland and Sweden, I think he has lost that momentum and he has lost the goodwill that he had built,” she mentioned.
The remainder of NATO is attempting to be affected person with Erdoğan, taking a wait-and-see method with the election with the hope that if Erdogan wins, maybe he gained’t have the electoral motivation to maintain blocking. Yet Washington does have some leverage: particularly, the F-16 fighter jets, which Turkey additionally actually desires. Turkey was kicked out of this system after shopping for a weapons system from Moscow, and Erdoğan has all the time needed again in. Right now, lawmakers in Congress stay terribly opposed — particularly due to Erdoğan’s antics — and the Biden administration is unlikely to go round Congress. Which means Turkey gained’t get close to the weapons it desires if it continues to stymie NATO’s massive second.
Most officers appear assured that Turkey will, in the long run, fall in line. But the longer he hammers his maximalist calls for, the extra probably the chance that Erdogan denies NATO its skill to quickly welcome Finland and Sweden. And the longer Erdogan drags this out, the tougher it could be to undo the injury amongst allies. “Erdogan is using his leverage, we’ll see how effectively,” Danforth mentioned. “But in the long term, this is really creating much deeper doubts about Turkey’s real value in NATO.”
