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Since July 2023, Russia-aligned affect actors have tricked celebrities into offering video messages that had been then utilized in pro-Russian propaganda. These movies had been then manipulated to falsely paint Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a drug addict. This is likely one of the insights within the newest biannual report on Russian digital threats from the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center: “Russian Threat Actors Dig In, Prepare to Seize on War Fatigue”
As described in additional element within the report, this marketing campaign aligns with the Russian authorities’s broader strategic efforts in the course of the interval from March to October 2023, throughout cyber and affect operations (IO), to stall Ukrainian army advances and diminish assist for Kyiv.
Video messages from American celebrities are utilized in Russian propaganda
Unwitting American actors and others seem to have been requested, seemingly through video message platforms akin to Cameo, to ship a message to somebody referred to as “Vladimir”, pleading with him to hunt assist for substance abuse. The movies had been then modified to incorporate emojis, hyperlinks and generally the logos of media retailers and circulated by means of social media channels to advance longstanding false Russian claims that the Ukrainian chief struggles with substance abuse. The Microsoft Threat Analysis Center has noticed seven such movies since late July 2023, that includes personalities akin to Priscilla Presley, musician Shavo Odadjian and actors Elijah Wood, Dean Norris, Kate Flannery, and John McGinley.
Samples of the movies selling pro-Russian propaganda aiming to malign Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that function totally different celebrities
Prigozhin’s loss of life has not slowed Russia’s affect operations
The August 2023 loss of life of Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, who owned the Wagner Group and the notorious Internet Research Agency troll farm, led many to query the way forward for Russia’s affect and propaganda capabilities. However, since then, Microsoft has noticed widespread affect operations by Russian actors that aren’t linked to Prigozhin, indicating that Russia has the capability to proceed prolific and complicated malign affect operations with out him.
Russia’s seasonal focus switched to degrade Ukrainian agriculture
Just because the previous winter noticed Russia concentrate on creating an power disaster and attacking Ukraine’s power sector, so this summer time noticed a convergence of Russian kinetic, cyber, and propaganda assaults on Ukraine’s agriculture sector. During the hotter rising and harvest months, Russia penetrated agribusinesses, stole information, deployed malware, and used army strikes to destroy grain that reportedly may have fed a million individuals for a 12 months.[1] Microsoft’s report exhibits a robust alignment amongst its army, propaganda, and cyberattack efforts. For instance, in a four-day interval in late July 2023, following Moscow’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russia:
- Attacked agricultural services in Odessa with 10 cruise missiles
- Launched a cyberattack on a Ukrainian agricultural gear group
- Disseminated false narratives in pro-Russian media retailers claiming, in a single instance, that Ukraine, the U.S., and NATO had been abusing the grain hall for terrorist functions not humanitarian help
It stays to be seen if this winter will see Russia revert to its seasonal concentrate on the Ukrainian power sector. However, in September 2023, the Government Computer Emergency Response Team of Ukraine (CERT-UA) introduced that Ukrainian power networks had been beneath sustained risk and Microsoft Threat Intelligence has noticed artifacts of Russian Military Intelligence (GRU) risk exercise on Ukrainian power sector networks from August by means of October 2023.
Russian cyberespionage prioritized conflict crimes investigations, governmental our bodies, and assume tanks
Russian authorities haven’t solely been accused of conflict crimes, however have directed cyber assets to focus on the legal investigators and prosecutors constructing circumstances in opposition to them. There is mounting stress between Moscow and organizations just like the International Criminal Court (ICC), which issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin on conflict crimes costs in March 2023. Actors linked to Russian army and international intelligence breached Ukrainian authorized and investigative networks and a legislation agency engaged on conflict crimes investigations as a part of a wider effort that focused world diplomatic, protection, public coverage, and IT organizations. One of these risk actors, aligned to the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR)and that we name Midnight Blizzard, has pursued entry to greater than 240 organizations since March 2023, predominantly within the U.S., Canada and European nations. Nearly 40% of the focused organizations had been governments, inter-governmental organizations, or policy-focused assume tanks.
Russia shifted anti-Ukraine messaging to U.S., Israel
Sophisticated Russia-affiliated affect actor Storm-1099 (greatest recognized for a mass-scale web site forgery operation dubbed “Doppelganger” by analysis group EU DisinfoLab) has been concentrating on worldwide supporters of Ukraine since Spring 2022. The group creates distinctive, branded retailers such because the Reliable News Network (RNN) and stokes on-the-ground demonstrations, bridging the digital and bodily worlds by means of amplification of those occasions. Despite efforts by expertise firms and analysis entities to report on and mitigate its attain, Storm-1099 stays totally lively. It has traditionally focused Western European nations, particularly Germany, however has now shifted focus to Israel and the U.S., reflecting an elevated prioritization of content material on the Israel-Hamas conflict, U.S. political themes, and the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Storm-1099 belongings pushed the false declare that Hamas acquired Ukrainian weapons on the black marketplace for its October 7 assault on Israel. Elsewhere, Russian-affiliated media pushed the false narrative that international recruits, together with Americans, had been transferred from Ukraine to hitch IDF forces in Gaza.
In late October 2023, French authorities suspected 4 Moldovan nationals of portray graffiti of the Star of David in public areas in Paris, photographs of which had been then amplified by Storm-1099 belongings. Two of the Moldovans reportedly claimed that they had been directed by a Russian-speaking particular person, suggesting attainable Russian accountability for the incident, which strongly aligns with Russia’s Active Measures playbook. Russia seemingly assesses that the continued Israel-Hamas battle is to its geopolitical benefit, because it believes the battle distracts the West from the conflict in Ukraine.
Ukrainian army infrastructure and protection companions stay key targets
Since Russian forces launched their spring 2023 offensive in Ukraine, Russian intelligence-affiliated cyber actors have concentrated their efforts on intelligence assortment from Ukrainian communications and army infrastructure in fight zones, and from Ukraine’s companions. One actor, that we name Forest Blizzard, tried to achieve preliminary entry to protection organizations through phishing messages that integrated novel and evasive methods. For instance, in August, Forest Blizzard despatched a phishing electronic mail to accountholders at a European protection group.
Screenshot of a pattern PDF lure related to Forest Blizzard phish of protection organizations. Actor masquerades as European Parliament workers.
Looking ahead
Ukraine’s army chief has prompt the conflict with Russia is shifting to a brand new stage of static trench warfare, protracting the battle additional. Russian cyber and affect operators will intention to demoralize the Ukrainian inhabitants and degrade Kyiv’s exterior sources of army and monetary help, together with attainable winter assaults on Ukraine’s power sector.
Elsewhere, the 2024 U.S. presidential election and different main political contests give malign affect actors a possibility to degrade assist for Ukraine-supporting political candidates. To date, Russian risk actors and propagandists haven’t demonstrated refined capabilities leveraging or integrating synthetic intelligence (AI) instruments into affect operations. However, Microsoft continues to watch this space intently.
Microsoft is working throughout a number of fronts to guard our clients in Ukraine and worldwide from these multifaceted threats. With our Secure Future Initiative, we’re integrating advances in AI-driven cyberdefense and safe software program engineering, with efforts to fortify worldwide norms to guard civilians from cyber threats. In the elections area, we’re deploying assets throughout a core set of rules to safeguard voters, candidates, campaigns, and election authorities worldwide, as greater than two billion individuals put together to have interaction within the democratic course of over the approaching 12 months.
[1] https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-intelligence-shows-russias-targeting-of-a-cargo-ship