During the Cold War, NATO had nightmares of a whole lot of 1000’s of Moscow’s troops pouring throughout worldwide borders and igniting a serious floor struggle with a democracy in Europe. Western governments feared that such a transfer by the Kremlin would result in escalation—first to a world struggle and even perhaps to a nuclear battle.
That was then; that is now.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is almost a yr previous, and the Ukrainians are holding on. The Russians, up to now, not solely have been pushed again, however are taking immense casualties and materials losses. For many Americans, the struggle is now simply one other battle within the information. Do we have to fear in regards to the nuclear menace of Putin’s struggle in Europe the way in which we nervous about such issues three many years in the past?
Our employees author Tom Nichols, an knowledgeable on nuclear weapons and the Cold War, counsels Americans to not be obsessive about nuclear escalation, however to concentrate on the probabilities for accidents and miscalculations. You can hear his ideas right here:
The following is a transcript of the episode:
Tom Nichols: It’s been a yr because the Russians invaded Ukraine and launched the most important typical struggle in Europe because the Nazis. One of the issues that I feel we have all nervous about in that point is the underlying drawback of nuclear weapons.
This is a nuclear armed energy at struggle with a whole lot of 1000’s of individuals in the midst of Europe. This is the nightmare that American international coverage has dreaded because the starting of the nuclear age.
And I feel individuals have form of put it out of their thoughts how doubtlessly harmful this battle is, which is comprehensible, but additionally, I feel, takes us away from enthusiastic about one thing that’s actually a very powerful international drawback on this planet as we speak.
During the Cold War we might’ve thought of that day-after-day, however nowadays, individuals simply do not give it some thought, and I feel they need to.
My title is Tom Nichols. I’m a employees author at The Atlantic. And I’ve spent plenty of years enthusiastic about nuclear weapons and nuclear struggle. For 25 years I used to be a professor of National Security Affairs at Naval War College.
For this episode of Radio Atlantic, I wish to discuss nuclear weapons and what I feel we must always have realized from the historical past of the Cold War about how to consider this battle as we speak.
I used to be conscious of nuclear weapons at a reasonably younger age as a result of my hometown, Chicopee, Massachusetts was house to an enormous nuclear bomber base, Strategic Air Command’s East Coast headquarters, which had the massive B-52s that may fly missions with nuclear weapons on to the Soviet Union.
I had a basic childhood of air-raid sirens, and hiding within the basement, and going underneath the desks, and doing all of that stuff. My highschool biology instructor had a grim humorousness and instructed us, you recognize, due to the Air Force base, we had been slated for immediate destruction. He stated, Yeah, if something ever occurs, we’re gone. We’re gone in seven or eight minutes. So I assume the thought of nuclear struggle and nuclear weapons was a bit of extra current in my life at an earlier age than for lots of different children.
It’s been a very long time since anybody’s actually needed to fear about world nuclear struggle. It’s been over 30 years because the fall of the Berlin Wall. I feel individuals who lived by the Cold War had been very happy to overlook about it. I do know I’m glad to have it far prior to now. And I feel youthful individuals who did not expertise it have a tough time understanding what it was all about —and what that concern was about— as a result of it is a part of historic historical past now.
But I feel individuals really want to grasp that Cold War historical past to grasp what is going on on as we speak, and the way resolution makers in Washington and in Europe, and even in Moscow, are enjoying out this struggle —as a result of many of those weapons are nonetheless proper the place we left them.
We have fewer of them, however we nonetheless have 1000’s of those weapons, lots of them on a really quick set off. We may go from the start of this podcast to the tip of the world, that in need of [a] time. And it is simple to overlook that. During the Cold War we had been continually conscious of it, as a result of it was the central affect on our international coverage. But it is essential for us to look again on the historical past of the Cold War as a result of we survived a protracted and really tense battle with a nuclear armed opponent. Now, a few of that was by good and smart coverage. And a few of it was simply by dumb luck.
Of course the primary huge disaster that Americans actually confronted the place they’d to consider the existential menace of nuclear weapons was the Cuban Missile Crisis in October of 1962.
I used to be barely two years previous. But residing subsequent to this huge plump nuclear goal in Massachusetts, we really knew individuals in my hometown who constructed fallout shelters. But we received by the Cuban Missile Crisis, partly as a result of President Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Krushchev realized what was at stake.
The gamble to place missiles in Cuba had failed and that we needed to, as Kruschev put it in considered one of his messages, we needed to cease pulling on the ends of the rope and tightening the knot of struggle however we additionally received extremely fortunate.
There was a second aboard a Soviet submarine the place the sub commander thought they had been underneath assault. And he wished to make use of nuclear tipped torpedoes to take out the American fleet, which might’ve triggered a holocaust.
I imply, it could’ve been an unimaginable quantity of devastation on the world. Tens, a whole lot of tens of millions of individuals lifeless. And, um, luckily a senior commander who needed to consent to the captain’s concept, vetoed the entire thing. He stated, I do not suppose that is what’s taking place. I do not suppose they’re making an attempt to sink us and I don’t consent. And so by this one fortunate break with this one Soviet officer we averted the tip of the world. I imply, we averted utter disaster.
After the Cuban Missile Crisis, individuals at the moment are much more conscious of this existential menace of nuclear weapons and it begins cropping up in all places, particularly in our popular culture. I imply, they had been all the time there within the fifties, there have been films in regards to the communist menace and assaults on America. But after the Cuban Missile Crisis, that is if you begin getting films like Dr. Strangelove and Failsafe.
Both had been about an unintentional nuclear struggle, which turns into a theme for a lot of the Cold War. In Dr. Strangelove, an American common goes nuts and orders an assault on Russia. And in Failsafe, a chunk of equipment goes unhealthy and the identical factor occurs. And I feel this mirrored this concern that now needed to dwell with this fixed menace of one thing that we and the Soviets did not even wish to do, however may occur anyway.
Even the James Bond films, which had been purported to be form of campy and enjoyable, nuclear weapons had been actually usually the supply of hazard in them. You know, unhealthy guys had been stealing them, individuals had been making an attempt to trace our nuclear submarines. Throughout the sixties, the seventies, the eighties nuclear weapons actually change into simply form of soaked into our fashionable tradition.
We all know the Cuban missile disaster as a result of it’s simply a part of our widespread data in regards to the world, even for those who did not dwell by it. I feel we do not notice how harmful different instances had been. I all the time consider 1983 because the yr we virtually did not make it.
1983 was an extremely tense yr. President Ronald Reagan started the yr calling the Soviet Union an evil empire. And introduced that the United States would begin pouring billions of {dollars} into an effort to defend in opposition to Soviet missiles together with space-based defenses, which the Soviets discovered extremely threatening.
The relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union had simply fully damaged down.Really by the autumn of 1983, it felt like struggle was inevitable. It definitely felt prefer to me struggle was inevitable. There was form of that scent of gunpowder within the air. We had been all fairly scared. I used to be fairly scared. I used to be a graduate pupil at that time. I used to be 23 years previous, and I used to be sure that this struggle, this cataclysmic struggle, was going to occur not solely in my lifetime, however in all probability earlier than I used to be 30 years previous.
And then plenty of issues occurred in 1983 that elevated the extent of stress between the United States and the Soviet Union to extraordinary ranges. I might say actually harmful ranges. The Soviets did their finest to show they had been an evil empire by taking pictures down a totally loaded civilian airliner, killing 269 individuals. Just weeks after the shootdown of the Korean airliner, Soviet Air Defenses received an misguided report of an American missile launch in opposition to them. And that is one other a kind of circumstances the place we had been simply fortunate. We had been simply lucky.
And on this case, it was a Soviet air protection officer, a lieutenant colonel, who noticed this warning that the Americans had launched 5 missiles. And he stated, You know, no one begins World War III with 5 missiles. That appears flawed.
And he stated, I simply, I feel the system, which nonetheless had some bugs, I simply do not suppose the system’s proper. We’re gonna wait that out. We’re gonna ignore that. He was really later reprimanded.
It was virtually like he was reprimanded and congratulated on the identical time, as a result of if he had referred to as Moscow and stated, Look, I’m doing my responsibility. I’m reporting Soviet Air Defenses have seen American birds are within the air. They’re coming at us and over to you Kremlin. And from there, plenty of unhealthy selections may have cascaded into World War III, particularly after a yr the place we had been in such amazingly excessive battle with one another.
Once once more, simply as after the Cuban Missile Crisis, the rise in stress within the Nineteen Eighties actually comes by within the fashionable tradition. Music, films, television, places this sense of menace into the minds of bizarre Americans in a means that we simply haven’t got now. So persons are going to the flicks and so they’re seeing films like War Games, as soon as once more about an unintentional nuclear struggle. They’re seeing films like Red Dawn, a couple of very intentional struggle by the Soviet Union in opposition to the United States.
The Soviets thought that Red Dawn was really a part of Reagan’s try to make use of Hollywood to arrange Americans for World War III. In music, Ronald Reagan as a personality made appearances in movies by Genesis or by Men At work. That November, the most important tv occasion in historical past was The Day After, which was a cinematic illustration of World War III.
I imply, it was in all places. By 1983, ‘84, we were soaked in this fear of World War III. Nuclear war and Armageddon, no matter where you looked. I remember in the fall of 1983 going to see the new James Bond movie, one of the last Roger Moore movies, called Octopussy. And the whole plot amazed me because, of course, I was studying this stuff at the time, I was studying NATO and nuclear weapons.
And here’s this opening scene where a mad Soviet General says, if only we can convince the West to give up its nuclear weapons we can finally invade and take over the world.
I saw all of these films as either a college student or a young graduate student, and again, it was just kind of woven into my life. Well, of course, this movie is about nuclear war. Of course, this movie is about a Soviet invasion. Of course, this movie is about, you know, the end of the world because it was always there. It was always in the background. But after the end of the Cold War, that remarkable amount of pop culture knowledge and just general cultural awareness sort of fades away.
I think one reason that people today don’t look back at the Cold War with the same sense of threat is that it all ended so quickly. We went from [these] terrifying year[s] of 1983, 1984. And then suddenly Gorbachev comes in, Reagan reaches out to him, Gorbachev reaches back. They jointly agree in 1985, they issue a statement that to this day, is still considered official policy by the Russian Federation and by the United States of America. They jointly declare a nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought.
And all of a sudden, by the summer of 1985, 1986, it’s just over, and like 40 years of tension just came to an end in the space of 20, 24 months. Something I, I just didn’t think I would see in my lifetime. And I think that’s really created a false sense of security in later generations.
After the Cold War in the nineties, we have a Russia that’s mainly pleasant to the United States however nuclear weapons are nonetheless a hazard. For instance in 1995, Norway launched a scientific satellite tv for pc on prime of a missile —I feel they had been gonna examine the Northern Lights— and the scientists gave everyone discover, you recognize, We’re gonna be launching this satellite tv for pc. You’re gonna see a missile launch from Norway.
Somebody in Russia simply did not get the message, and the Russian protection individuals got here to President Boris Yeltsin and so they stated this is likely to be a NATO assault. And they gave him the choice to activate and launch Russian nuclear weapons. Yeltsin conferred together with his individuals and luckily, as a result of our relationships had been good, and since Boris Yeltsin and Bill Clinton had a very good relationship and since tensions had been low on this planet, Yeltsin says, yeah, okay. I do not purchase that. I’m certain it is nothing.
But think about once more, if that had been any person else.
And that brings us to as we speak. The very first thing to grasp is we’re in a greater place than we had been throughout the Cold War in some ways. During the Cold War, we had tens of 1000’s of weapons pointed at one another. Now by treaty, the United States and the Russian Federation every have about 1500 nuclear weapons deployed and able to go. Now, that is plenty of nuclear weapons, however 1500 is loads higher than 30,000 or 40,000
Nonetheless, we’re coping with a way more harmful Russian regime with this mafia state led by Vladimir Putin.
Putin is a mafia boss. There is nobody to cease him from doing no matter he needs. And he has actually satisfied himself that he’s some form of nice world historic determine who’s going to reestablish this Christian Slavic empire all through the previous Soviet Union and remnants of the previous Russian Empire. And that makes him uniquely harmful.
People would possibly marvel why Putin is even bothering with nuclear threats as a result of we have all the time considered Russia as this big typical energy as a result of that is the legacy of the Cold War. We had been outnumbered. NATO on the time was solely 16 nations. We had been completely outnumbered by the Soviets and the Warsaw Pact in every thing, males, tanks, artillery, and naturally, the one means we may have repulsed an assault by the Soviet Union into Europe would’ve been to make use of nuclear weapons.
I do know earlier, I discussed the film Octopussy. We’ve come a good distance from the times when that mad Russian common may say, If solely we removed nuclear weapons and NATO’s nuclear weapons, we may roll our tanks, you recognize, from Czechoslovakia to Poland by Germany and on into France.
What individuals want to grasp is that Russia is now the weaker typical energy. The Russians at the moment are those saying, pay attention, if issues go actually badly for us and we’re shedding, we reserve the correct to make use of nuclear weapons. The distinction between Russia now and NATO then is NATO was threatening these nuclear weapons in the event that they had been invaded and so they had been being simply rolled over by Soviet tanks on their method to the English channel. The Russians as we speak are saying, we began this struggle and if it goes badly for us, we reserve the correct to make use of nuclear weapons to get ourselves out of a jam.
This typical weak point is definitely what makes them extra harmful, as a result of they’re now regularly being humiliated within the discipline. And a rustic that had gotten by by convincing folks that they had been an important typical energy, that they’d plenty of typical functionality, they’re being revealed now as a hole energy. They cannot even defeat a rustic a 3rd of their very own measurement.
And so after they’re working out of choices, you may perceive at that time the place Putin says, Well, the one method to scramble the deck and to get a do-over right here is to make use of some small nuclear weapon in that space to form of sober everyone up and shock them into coming to the desk or giving me what I would like.
Now I feel that may be extremely silly. And I feel lots of people all over the world, together with China and different nations have instructed Putin that may be a very unhealthy concept. But I feel one factor we have realized from this struggle is that Putin is a very awful strategist who takes dumb probabilities as a result of he is simply not very competent.
And that comes again to the Cold War lesson—that you do not fear about somebody beginning World War III as a lot as you are concerned about bumbling into World War III due to a bunch of actually dumb selections by individuals who thought they had been doing one thing sensible and did not perceive that they had been really doing one thing actually harmful.
So the place does this go away us? This main struggle is raging by the center of Europe, the state of affairs that we all the time dreaded throughout the Cold War, 1000’s and 1000’s of Moscow’s troops flooding throughout borders. What’s the correct means to consider this? Perhaps a very powerful factor to grasp is that this actually is a struggle to defend democracy in opposition to an aggressive, authoritarian imperial state.
The frontline of the battle for civilization, actually, is in Ukraine now. If Ukraine loses this struggle, the world might be a really totally different place. That’s what makes it crucial that Americans take into consideration this drawback. I feel it is crucial to help Ukraine on this battle, however we must always try this with a prudent understanding of actual dangers that have not gone away.
And so I feel the Cold War supplies some actually good steering right here, which is to be engaged, to bear in mind, however to not be panicked. Not to change into consumed by this concern day-after-day, as a result of that turns into paralyzing, that turns into debilitating. It’s unhealthy for you as an individual. And it is unhealthy for democracies’ means to make selections—as a result of then you definately merely do not make any selections in any respect out of concern.
I feel it is essential to not fall sufferer to Cold War amnesia and overlook every thing we realized. But I additionally do not suppose we must always change into consumed by a brand new Cold War paranoia the place we dwell on a regular basis considering that we’re on the sting of Armageddon.