Democrats seem like on monitor to widen their majority within the Virginia Senate — a key chamber they’re defending this 12 months in a state the place abortion entry is on the road.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Democrat Aaron Rouse, a former National Football League participant and former Virginia Beach City Council member, held a slim lead over his Republican opponent Kevin Adams in a particular election to fill a emptiness within the Virginia Senate’s Seventh District. Though Rouse has already declared victory, there are some absentee ballots but to be counted that might erase his lower than 350-vote lead. If Rouse prevails, Democrats would have a 22-18 edge within the chamber, which commenced its annual session on Wednesday.
The race might determine whether or not state Republicans can take up extra restrictions on abortion this 12 months. Though Democrats make up nearly all of the Senate, their margin would solely be 21-19 within the chamber if Adams wins. Adams has stated that he helps a 15-week abortion ban proposed by Virginia Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin. And Democratic state Sen. Joseph D. Morrissey (D-Richmond) is brazenly anti-abortion and has stated that he would hold an “open mind” in terms of additional restrictions on abortion. That means the chamber might doubtlessly be tied on the problem, and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears, additionally an anti-abortion politician, would forged the tiebreaking vote.
Virginia is one in all many states contemplating additional restrictions on abortion this 12 months. Bills that might ban abortions after fetal cardiac exercise is detected in Nebraska, that might stop native governments from funding workers looking for an abortion by way of their well being plans or reimbursement for out-of-state journey in Tennessee, and that might ban abortion earlier than 12 weeks of being pregnant in North Carolina are amongst these on the desk. The Guttmacher Institute, a pro-abortion rights suppose tank, discovered that 24 states had been more likely to ban abortion or had already carried out so heading into 2023.
That’s made abortion a key situation for Democrats in state legislative races, together with for Rouse. He ran a number of TV advertisements specializing in the problem and acquired greater than $100,000 from Planned Parenthood Advocates of Virginia this cycle.
“When I was in the NFL, my job was to be the last line of defense. Right now, that’s what we need in Richmond,” he says in one December advert. “Women’s rights are on the line, but I’ll never back down.”
Ahead of Rouse’s seeming win, the risk to abortion entry within the state was very actual. Currently, Virginia permits abortions as much as about 26 weeks of being pregnant and, after that, solely in circumstances the place three medical doctors attest that the pregnant individual’s life is in danger. Youngkin’s proposal for a 15-week ban contains exceptions for rape, incest, and to avoid wasting the pregnant individual’s life. Democrats have argued that the governor’s proposal might end in jail time for girls and medical doctors, however Youngkin’s workplace has dismissed that framing as “political posturing” and stated that he is not going to imprison ladies.
Youngkin has additionally proposed barring state Medicaid from protecting abortions when a fetus has an “incapacitating” bodily or psychological deformity, and stopping state funds from getting used to help abortion providers.
Those measures may cross within the Republican-controlled state House. But if Rouse does win, that might probably foreclose the potential of a tie within the state Senate and doom Youngkin’s proposal for now.
What’s subsequent for abortion rights in Virginia
Rouse’s obvious victory would preserve the established order on abortion rights in Virginia, however solely briefly.
Democrats might be down a vote within the state Senate if Sen. Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond) steps down, reopening the potential of a tie. She’s broadly favored to win a particular election to fill a vacant federal congressional seat in February, however she instructed the Virginia Mercury that she’s assured that any votes on abortion laws will conclude earlier than she’d need to resign and that the Democratic caucus will maintain robust in opposition to additional abortion restrictions. It’s not clear whether or not there could be time to carry a particular election to fill that seat, provided that it must occur no less than 55 days earlier than the June 20 main.
Then, in November, all 140 state legislative seats are up for grabs, and if Republicans can defend their majority within the state House and internet even only one seat within the state Senate, Youngkin’s proposal, or much more excessive abortion restrictions, equivalent to a proposed ban after 12 weeks of being pregnant, might be again on the desk. Youngkin has beforehand stated that he would “gleefully” signal “any bill [to protect life] that comes to my desk” — not simply one in all his personal devising.
At the identical time, abortion rights teams within the state are attempting to additional shield abortion rights. REPRO Rising Virginia, an abortion rights group, is pushing for a state constitutional modification that might set up a proper to reproductive freedom and to make being pregnant choices with out discrimination, in addition to shield abortion suppliers and their sufferers from being criminalized.
Though different states have efficiently handed related amendments enshrining abortion rights of their state constitutions over the past 12 months, the modification in all probability received’t occur in Virginia anytime quickly, particularly as long as Republicans management the state House. Any modification must cross the legislature two years in a row with an intervening state House election earlier than going to the voters.
Virginia is a prime precedence for Democrats in 2023
If Rouse wins, that might bode nicely for Democrats who need to take again the Virginia House of Delegates and defend their state Senate majority this fall.
They solely want three extra seats to win the House, and in the event that they achieve widening their majority within the state Senate with a win within the Seventh District, they’d have a cushion heading into November, when a brand new electoral map drawn by a court-appointed particular grasp will shake up the dynamics for Democratic incumbents. The maps are thought to barely benefit Democrats, however some Democratic lawmakers have argued that the brand new map ought to have delivered a much bigger edge to their occasion and unfairly pits incumbents in opposition to one another.
“Virginia is a huge priority,” stated Jessica Post, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the fundraising arm of the Democratic Party devoted to state legislative races. “We need to do a lot of work, especially with Democratic incumbents, to introduce them to their new constituents and [ensure] they have a great record to run on.”
Democrats anticipate that Youngkin will spend considerably in state legislative races forward of a rumored 2024 presidential bid, which he has not but dominated out. A giant win this 12 months might assist to place him as a determine akin to Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis or Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who’re each seen as having a future in nationwide politics partially due to their skill to carry onto and deepen majorities of their state legislatures.
“We think that Youngkin, because he’s both personally wealthy and he has a great ability to raise money nationally, is going to try to use this as a proving ground,” Post stated. “We’re hoping that we can find the national interest in Virginia that we’ve been able to find in prior cycles and humble Youngkin and manage some of his ambitions in the state.”
