Although China has largely deserted COVID-19 case reporting, proof of its large wave of an infection readily exhibits up in airports exterior its borders.
On a December 26 flight from the southeastern metropolis of Wenzhou to Milan, Italy, 42 p.c of the 149 passengers on board examined constructive for COVID-19 upon arrival, in accordance with a research printed Thursday within the journal Eurosurveillance.
The Italian researchers behind the research additionally checked out test-positivity charges of three different flights from jap cities in China to Italy, two to Milan and two to Rome, all on the finish of December. Collectively, 23 p.c of the passengers from the 4 flights (126 of 556 passengers) had been constructive for SARS-CoV-2. The different three flights had positivity charges of 19 p.c, 11 p.c, and 14 p.c.
The passengers had been examined both with rapid-antigen checks or PCR checks. Positive antigen checks had been confirmed with PCR checks. The testing almost certainly captured individuals with gentle or asymptomatic circumstances, in addition to those that had lately recovered. PCR checks can stay constructive for weeks following an an infection.
Similar to the Italian information, The Washington Post reported a few week in the past that it had seen information from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency indicating that 23 p.c of short-term guests from China to Korea (314 out of 1,352 examined on the airport) had been constructive for SARS-CoV-2 between January 2 and 6.
The charges betray mass an infection in China, which is predicted, however not nicely documented. When China abruptly scrapped its zero-COVID coverage final month, it ditched mass testing and largely gave up reporting circumstances. Meanwhile, the virus has been ripping via a inhabitants that’s, because the Italian researchers observe, “a extremely vaccinated however infection-naïve inhabitants.”
Current fashions estimate that there may very well be 1.5 million new infections every day in China, and over 1 million may die within the coming weeks. Health specialists are notably involved concerning the unfold of illness amid the upcoming Lunar New Year on January 22, when tens of hundreds of thousands of individuals in China journey to see household for the festivities. The motion is predicted to shift excessive transmission from large cities to extra susceptible rural areas.
Benjamin Cowling, an epidemiologist on the University of Hong Kong, informed The Washington Post that the an infection charges to this point are “utterly in keeping with forecasts that almost all of the inhabitants of main cities have already been contaminated.”
One level of excellent information is that the Italian researchers did entire genome sequencing of the virus from 61 passengers and, in that sampling, didn’t discover any new or alarming variants. The sampling turned up omicron sublineages BA.5.2, BF.7, and BQ.1.1, which have been seen elsewhere. The information matches what has been reported elsewhere and from China.